Forecasting of wheat yield in various agro-climatic regions of Bihar by using CERES-Wheat model

Authors

  • P.K.SINGH Agromet Advisory Service Division, India Meteorological Department-New Delhi
  • K.K.SINGH Agromet Advisory Service Division, India Meteorological Department-New Delhi
  • PRIYANKA SINGH Agromet Advisory Service Division, India Meteorological Department-New Delhi
  • R. BALASUBRAMANIAN Agrimet Division, IMD, Pune-411005
  • A.K.BAXLA Agromet Advisory Service Division, India Meteorological Department-New Delhi
  • B.KUMAR Bihar Agricultural University, Sabour-813210, Bihar
  • AKHILESH GUPTA Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi-110016
  • L.S.RATHORE India Meteorological Department-New Delhi
  • NAVEEN KALRA Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v19i4.604

Keywords:

DSSAT v 4.6 model, weather data, simulated yield, forecasted & actual yields

Abstract

Forecasting yield of crops is important for planners in taking tactical decisions for ensuring food availability. Crop simulation models are useful tool to forecast the crop yield. The CERES-wheat model calibrated and validated with experimental data was used to predict the district wise yield in Bihar. Based on the areas under different dates of sowing and crop cultivars, a correction factor was applied on simulated yield to predict the district wise and regional wheat yield. The simulated yield were higher than the actual yield in all the three agro-climatic zones, while the forecasted yields were very close to actual. The percentage deviation of the forecasted yield from the actual was ±4.0 %. The results clearly indicated that the CERES-Wheat model can be used to regional production estimates of wheat in Bihar. 

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Published

14-12-2017

How to Cite

P.K.SINGH, K.K.SINGH, PRIYANKA SINGH, R. BALASUBRAMANIAN, A.K.BAXLA, B.KUMAR, AKHILESH GUPTA, L.S.RATHORE, & NAVEEN KALRA. (2017). Forecasting of wheat yield in various agro-climatic regions of Bihar by using CERES-Wheat model. Journal of Agrometeorology, 19(4), 346–349. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v19i4.604

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 4 (2017): December

Section

Research Paper

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