Rainfall probability analysis using Markovchain model in Sabour region of Bihar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v10i2.1207Keywords:
Rainfall, drought, seasonal rainfall, kharif season, rabi season, monthly rainfall and weekly probabilityAbstract
Rainfall during monsoon season and its variability govern the cropping system in the Sabour region. Long-term rainfall data is used to analyse the probability of occurrence of deficit /normal /excess rainfall for better crop planning in the region.
During the 30 years (1972-01) there were about 13 per-cent drought, 10 per-cent flood and 77 percent normal years. Among drought years southwest monsoon rainfall was the lowest (646 mm) in 1977. Seed sowing in paddy nursery in the Sabour region generally takes place immediately after onset of monsoon rains during 23-25 standard meteorological weeks and transplanting is carried out around 27th or 28th standard week. The tillering, 50 per-cent flowering and dough stage are observed during 32-33rd, 37-38th and 40-41st standard weeks respectively.
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