Impact of projected climate on wheat yield in India and its adaptation strategies

Authors

  • V.P. PRAMOD Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • B. BAPUJI RAO Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • S.S.V.S. RAMAKRISHNA Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam - 530 004
  • M. MUNESHWAR SINGH All India Coordinated Research Project on Long-Term Fertilizer Experiments, IISS, Bhopal - 462 038
  • N.R. PATEL Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun - 248 001
  • V.M. SANDEEP Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • V.U.M. RAO Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • P. S. CHOWDARY Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • V. NARSIMHA RAO Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India
  • P. VIJAYA KUMAR Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad-500 059, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v19i3.627

Keywords:

Wheat productivity, future climates, adaptation strategies, DSSAT-Wheat

Abstract

Wheat is highly sensitive to climate change especially temperature changes experienced in the later phase of crop season. Hence, it is of immense importance to know how and to what extent climate change will affect wheat yields and to assess the adaptive strategies for mitigating possible negative consequences on wheat production. Wheat yield responses to three future climatic periods (2025, 2050 and 2075) were studied by driving DSSAT-Wheat (v4.5) model with daily weather from three CMIP-5 climate models’ (GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M) as the basic input at four sites (Ludhiana, Raipur, Akola and New Delhi) representing three major wheat growing zones of the country. Projected changes in growing season (November-March) day and night temperatures at four sites differed substantially both in direction and magnitude. Day temperatures are projected to rise conspicuously at Ludhiana, representing northwest parts of the country, and moderately over central parts of India (Akola and Raipur). Positive rainfall anomalies at Ludhiana (+76%) and negative anomalies at Raipur (-15%) are projected in future climates. With these anticipated changes, wheat is likely to experience warmer days (+1.1 °C) at Ludhiana and nights at Raipur (+2.8 °C) and more seasonal moisture availability at Ludhiana in future climates. Negative impacts of climatic change in these sites are found to be minimized by adapting one or a combination of management practices, which are site specific. 

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Published

01-09-2017

How to Cite

V.P. PRAMOD, B. BAPUJI RAO, S.S.V.S. RAMAKRISHNA, M. MUNESHWAR SINGH, N.R. PATEL, V.M. SANDEEP, V.U.M. RAO, P. S. CHOWDARY, V. NARSIMHA RAO, & P. VIJAYA KUMAR. (2017). Impact of projected climate on wheat yield in India and its adaptation strategies. Journal of Agrometeorology, 19(3), 207–216. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v19i3.627

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 3 (2017): September

Section

Research Paper

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