Critical analysis of temporal climate change and ensuing frequency of crop yield constraining temperatures

Authors

  • S.K. JALOTA Department of Soil Science, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab
  • PRABHJYOT KAUR Department of Climate Change & Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab
  • JATINDER KAUR Department of Climate Change & Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab
  • P.K. KINGRA Department of Climate Change & Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab
  • B.B. VASHISHT Department of Soil Science, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v22i3.295

Keywords:

Climate parameters, RCP, bias correction,time series trends, rice-wheat system

Abstract

Critical analysis of magnitudes andtrends of temporal changes in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures as well as rainfall during three time series i.e. past (observed data, 1970-1990), present (observed data, 1989-2018) and future (bias corrected modelled data, 2021-2050) reveals that on the whole, inter–series mean of all the three climate parameters increased, and variation decreased in future time series. The magnitude of these trends varied with the model as well as scenario; was highest in RCP 8.5 scenario. Intra-series trends at annual and seasonal scales are dictated by inconsistent monthly trends. This study also adds that decline incrop yields of rice-wheat system with warming in future can be ascribed to increased frequency of days having yield constraining temperatures (above ceiling and below critically low during crop growth and reproduction stages) rather than their elevated magnitudes only as anticipated previously.

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Published

01-09-2020

How to Cite

S.K. JALOTA, PRABHJYOT KAUR, JATINDER KAUR, P.K. KINGRA, & B.B. VASHISHT. (2020). Critical analysis of temporal climate change and ensuing frequency of crop yield constraining temperatures. Journal of Agrometeorology, 22(3), 339–352. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v22i3.295

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 3 (2020): September

Section

Research Paper

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