Climate variability, trends, projections and their impact on different crops: A case study of Gujarat, India
Keywords:Climate change, climate variability, RCP4.5, RCP 8.5, Impact on crops, Climatic extremes
Gujarat, being a coastal state, is likely to be impacted by global warming and climate change not only due to sea level rise and salinity ingress but also due to an increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms and other extreme weather events, causing uncertainty in crop production. An attempt has therefore been made to understand the climate of Gujarat in the past, present, and future based on the works done at the Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand. Analysis carried out on climatic trends and climatic extremes using past available data from different stations in Gujarat has been highlighted. Crop simulation models validated with experimental data collected for different crops across Gujarat state were used to understand the response of crops to climatic variability. The climate change impact studies and adaptation strategies carried out under the NPCC project have also been highlighted. And lastly, the work done by the author as an emeritus scientist on climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for all the districts of Gujarat and their likely impact on selected crops is presented. The results revealed that in the past, temperatures have shown increasing trends but not reached significant levels except at certain locations at night. Rainfall has also increased, but marginally. Future temperatures have been projected to increase in different parts of Gujarat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with varying magnitudes. Similarly, the rainfall has also been projected to increase, while the sunshine hours are projected to decrease. The ultimate impact would be a drastic reduction in yields in spite of the increase in CO2 level, suggesting that the present-day crop varieties would not be able to sustain crop production levels under a changing climatic scenario.
Choudhary, Divesh, H.R. Patel and V. Pandey (2015). Evaluation of adaptation strategies under A2 climate change scenario using InfoCrop model for kharif maize in middle Gujarat region. J. Agrometeorol., 17(1): 98-101. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v17i1.982
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
Lunagaria, MM, H R Patel, AV Shah, SB Yadav, BI Karande and Vyas Pandey (2011). Validation of PRECIS baseline (1961-1990) simulation for middle Gujarat agroclimatic zone. J. Agrometeorol., 13(2): 92-96. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v13i2.1348
Lunagaria, M M, H P Dabhi and Vyas Pandey (2015). Trends in the temperature and rainfall extremes during climatic past of Gujarat. J. Agrometeorol., 17(1): 118-123. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v17i1.986
Lunagaria, M M., H R Patel, N J Chaudhari, VUM Rao, P Vijaykumar, Vyas Pandey (2018). Agroclimatic Atlas of Gujarat, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand Gujarat
Mishra, Sudhir Kumar, A.M. Shekh, V. Pandey, S.B. Yadav and H.R. Patel (2015). Sensitivity analysis of four wheat cultivars to varying photoperiod and temperature at different phenological stages using WOFOST model. J. Agrometeorol.,17(1): 74-79. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v17i1.978
Mote, B. M., Vyas Pandey and D. D. Patil (2018). Effects of change in temperature and CO2 concentration on summer groundnut in middle Gujarat- A simulation study. J. Agrometeorol., 20(3): 219-222. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v20i3.548
Pandey, Vyas (2020). Project Completion Report (2017-2020) of ICAR-Emeritus Scientist Scheme. ICAR Ref. No. Agril Edn./9/29/2016/ES/HRD dated 3rd January 2017, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, pp 161.
Pandey, Vyas and H R Patel (2011). Climate Change and its Impact on Wheat and Maize Yield in Gujarat. In. Challenges and Opportunities in Agrometeorology (eds) S D Attri, L S Rathore, MVK Sivakumar; SK Dash, Springer. Pp321-334.
Pandey, Vyas, B.I.Karande and B.M.Mote (2016). Impact and Management of Extreme Weather Events in Groundnut Production in India. Indian J. Natural Sci., 7(39):11824-11833. ISSN: 0976 – 0997
Parmar, P.K., S.C. Mali, A.K. Arvadiya, D.P. Patel, S.V. Vihol and Vyas Pandey (2019). Calibration and validation of CANEGRO model for sugarcane in south Gujarat region. J. Agrometeorol., 21(3): 338-391. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v21i3.268
Parmar, P. K., M. J. Vasani, H. R. Patel, S. B. Yadav, V. Pandey (2023). Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Groundnut in North-Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone of Gujarat. Mausam, 74(1): 213-216. https://doi.org/10.54302/ mausam.v74i1.6466
Patel, H. R., M.M. Lunagaria, B.I. Karande, Vyas Pandey, S.B. Yadav, A. V. Shah, V.U.M. Rao and S. Nareshkumar (2012). Impact of projected climate change on wheat and maize in middle Gujarat agro-climatic zone. J. Agrometeorol., 14(2): 134-137. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v14i2.1409
Patel, H R, M M Lunagaria, B I Karande, S B Yadav, A V Shah, V K Sood and Vyas Pandey (2015). Climate change and its impact on major crops of Gujarat. J. Agrometeorol.,17(2): 190-193. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v17i2.1003
Patil, D. D., Vyas Pandey, Ramesh Gurjar and H. P. Patel. (2018a). Effect of intra-seasonal variation in temperature and rainfall on seed yield of pigeon pea cultivars using CROPGRO model. J. Agrometeorol., 20(4): 286-292. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v20i4.567
Patil, D. D., Vyas Pandey, R R Acharya and L N Baria (2018b). Effect of intra-seasonal variation in temperature on tuber yield of potato in middle Gujarat using SUBSTOR model. J. Agrometeorol., 20(1): 22-27. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v20i1.497
Patil, D. D., Vyas Pandey, Vipul Kapadia and A. C. Sadhu (2019). Sensitivity analysis of CROPGRO- cotton model to intra-seasonal climatic variability in middle Gujarat. J. Agrometeorol., 21(2): 148-153. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v21i2.224
Shamim, M., A M Shekh, Vyas Pandey, H R Patel and M M Lunagaria (2010). Sensitivity of CERES-Rice model to different environmental parameters on productivity of aromatic rice in middle Gujarat. J. Agrometeorol., 12(2): 213-216. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v12i2.1308
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 VYAS PANDEY
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This is a human-readable summary of (and not a substitute for) the license. Disclaimer.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.