Trend and change point detection of seasonal rainfall for effective crop planning over southern transition zone of Karnataka, India
Keywords:Change point detection, Mann- Kendall test, rainfall, trend
The significance of the trends was tested by Mann-Kendall test for annual and seasonal rainfall. Among the 14 taluks, only Hassan taluk shows a significant positive trend in annual rainfall while eight taluks have shown non-significant positive trend and remaining five taluks have shown non-significant negative trend. The annual rainfall for the entire zone have shown non-significant positive trend. For the SWM season, Alur taluk shows a significant negative trend and eight taluks have shown non-significant positive trend. However, five taluks and whole zone showed a non-significant negative trend. Southwest monsoon and annual rainfall in Bhadravathi taluk was increased in 2007 (571.9 mm to 785.1 mm and 857.6 mm to 1090.9 mm, respectively) and in Shivamogga, the change in annual rainfall was decreased during 1983 (1497.5 mm to 944.0 mm) and 2011 (944.0 mm to 796.6 mm). The northeast monsoon rainfall was increased during 1992 (134.3 mm to 441.1 mm) and it was decreased during 1994 (441.1 mm to 162.0 mm) in Shikaripura taluk. Similarly, in Hunsur taluk, the SW Monsoon rainfall has increased (701.8 mm to 1010.2 mm) during 1991 and it was decreased during 2001 (1010.2 mm to 723.3 mm), in Periyapatna and Honnali taluk, Northeast monsoon rainfall has decreased during 2012 and 2011, respectively.
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