Simulating the Winter Wheat Production of Egypt Using WOFOST-PCSE Crop Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v28i2.3379Keywords:
Winter wheat, WOFOST-PCSE, Temperature sensitivity, Harvest index, Climate change impact.Abstract
Winter wheat is a critical strategic crop for Egypt's food security. The accurate simulation of its production is therefore fundamental for future planning and evidence-based policy. This study applies the World Food Studies (WOFOST) crop simulation model to estimate winter wheat yield across Lower Egypt (Nile Delta). Following sensitivity analyses to determine the optimal model configuration, WOFOST was calibrated using data from 14 growing seasons (2000–2014) and validated for the period 2015–2020. Model performance, evaluated using relative bias (rbias) and root mean square error (RMSE), showed reasonable agreement with observed yields (RMSE: 0.33–0.39; rbias: 0.4–5.8%). A strong negative correlation was identified between yield and air temperature in the Nile Delta, with Pearson correlation coefficients exceeding -0.75 for maximum temperature (Tmax) and -0.85 for both mean (Tmean) and minimum temperature (Tmin). Sensitivity experiments imposing temperature perturbations (±0.5°C and ±1.0°C) revealed that a 1.0°C increase in mean daily temperature reduced the total weight of storage organs (TWSO), total above-ground biomass (TAGP), and straw yield (STR) by 5.8–11.4%, 6.22–12.12%, and 6.54–12.76%, respectively, while the harvest index (Hind) increased marginally (0.43–0.81%). Conversely, a 1.0°C cooling increased TWSO, TAGP, and STR by 6.1–11.7%, 6.4–12.92%, and 6.68–14.04%, respectively, accompanied by a slight decrease in Hind (0.27–1.11%). The retrieved results demonstrate the efficacy of the WOFOST model in simulating winter wheat production under variable climatic conditions, supporting its potential application for future climate scenario assessments.
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