Future Precipitation Dynamics and Their Implications for Agricultural Water Security in Iraq: A PlaSim Assessment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v28i2.3336Keywords:
Climate change, Iraq, Precipitation, PlaSim, SSP scenarios, Water resourcesAbstract
Rainfall changes across Iraq were explored under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1–2.6 (low-emission) and SSP2-4.5 (medium-emission) using the Planet Simulator (PlaSim) model. Bias correction of precipitation dynamics was performed against ERA5 reanalysis data (1995–2024) for near-future (2026–2050), mid future (2051–2075), and far future (2076–2100) scenarios. Under SSP1-2.6, precipitation shows a U-shaped trajectory with a 24% decrease (near-future) and gradual recovery to 9% below baseline by 2100 along with increased interannual variability. Under SSP2-4.5, significant deficits of 16–21% endure through each interval with negligible variation. These divergent trajectories have significant consequences for rainfed winter wheat production in northern Iraq, which relies on winter-spring precipitation (DJF-MAM). SSP1-2.6 Increased variability under threatens the predictability of crop phenology, while SSP2-4.5 Fundamental reshaping of these agricultural systems would be essential to avoid chronic deficits in food availability. The differences highlight the extent to which global emission pathways will seal Iraq’s fate when it comes to water security and agricultural viability.
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