Simulating the impact of climate change on sugarcane production in Punjab

Abstract

The present study was performed at three diverse agro-climatic zones of Indian Punjab. A validated DSSAT-CANEGRO model was used to simulate the response of different climate change scenarios on cane yield of four sugarcane varieties (CoPb 91, CoJ 88, Co 118 and Co 238) for each zone. Results described that elevated and lowered minimum temperature upto 3.0°C may alter cane yield by -17.9 to 18.0 per cent. Similarly, ±3.0°C altered maximum temperature may change the cane yield by -17.6 to 17.5 per cent. The sugarcane yield may be decreased by 2.4 to 14.4 per cent, 3.3 to 17.6% and 0.3 to15.4 per cent with 2.5 to 15 per cent reduced solar radiation and increase in the same unit may enhance the yield by 1.9 to 9.0 per cent, 1.3 to 13.6 per cent and 2.0 to 12.3 per cent at Faridkot, Gurdaspur and Kapurthala, respectively. A±30 mm rainfall may change the cane yield by 9.2 to 18.0 % similarly, rise and fall in CO2 by 5 to 30 ppm was able to increase and decrease the cane yield by 2.4- 22.6 and 3.5 - 27.8 per cent, at different regions. This study confirmed that for sugarcane cultivation in Punjab CoPb 91 should be preferred. However, CoJ 88 and Co 238 may suffer cane yield loss of 7.8 and 9.9 per cent respectively.