Rainfall variability and probability for crop planning at Madhepura in Bihar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v11i1.1221Keywords:
Rainfall pattern, initial and conditional probability, crop planningAbstract
Daily rainfall data of thirty years (1974-2004) have been analyzed for establishing the long term averages of weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and its variability. July receives maximum rainfall of 386.5 mm followed by August (330.6 mm). The stable rainfall period was of 13 weeks spread over 25 to 37th standard meteorological weeks (SMW). The probability of receiving 10 and 20 mm of average weekly rainfall during 25 to 39th SMW exceeds 70%. At 75% probability level rainfall of 45.8 mm can be expected to occur during the month of May that can be utilized for summer ploughing or seedbed preparation for raising rice seedlings; maize sowing may be advanced to last week of April to first week of May. Sowing of jute and other crops (cowpea, groundnut, pigeon pea, black gram, direct sown rice etc) could also be performed in this region.
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