Wheat yield prediction based on weather parameters using multiple linear, neural network and penalised regression models

Authors

  • K. S. ARAVIND ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012
  • ANANTA VASHISTH ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012
  • P. KRISHANAN ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012
  • B.DAS ICAR-Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute, Goa, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v24i1.1002

Keywords:

Wheat yield prediction, stepwise multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural network, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, elastic net

Abstract

Wheat yield production is largely attributed by weather parameters. Model developed by multiple linear, neural network and penalised regression techniques using weather data have the potential to provide reliable, timely and cost-effective prediction of wheat yield. Wheat yield data and weather parameter during crop growing period (46th to 15th SMW) for more than 30 years were collected for study area and model was developed using stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR), principal component analysis (PCA) in combination with SMLR, artificial neural network (ANN) alone and in combination with PCA, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and elastic net (ENET) techniques.  Analysis was carried out by fixing 70% of the data for calibration and remaining dataset for validation. On examining these models, LASSO and elastic net are performing excellent having nRMSE value less than 10 % for four out of five location and good for one location, because of prevention in over fitting and reducing regression coefficient by penalization.

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Published

11-02-2022

How to Cite

K. S. ARAVIND, ANANTA VASHISTH, P. KRISHANAN, & B.DAS. (2022). Wheat yield prediction based on weather parameters using multiple linear, neural network and penalised regression models . Journal of Agrometeorology, 24(1), 18–25. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v24i1.1002

Issue

Vol. 24 No. 1 (2022): March

Section

Research Paper

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Copyright (c) 2022 K. S. ARAVIND, ANANTA VASHISTH, P. KRISHANAN, B.DAS

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