Development of agro-climatic grape yield model for Nashik region, Maharashtra, India

Authors

  • S.J. KADBHANE MVPS’s KBT COE Nashik, Maharashtra
  • V.L.MANEKAR SVNIT, Surat, Gujarat, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v22i4.474

Keywords:

Food security, grape yield, future climate projection, climate change

Abstract

Prediction of the crop yield is need of time according to the change in climate conditions. In the present study, the Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model has been developed with monthly climatic parameters using multi-regression analysis approach. The developed model was statistically tested for its predictive ability. The discrepancy ratio, the standard deviation of discrepancy ratio, mean percentage error and standard deviation of mean percentage error for the model was obtained as 1.03, 0.19, 0.03% and 0.19, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the developed ACGY model using the parametric sensitivity method. In order to know the future grape yield using ACGY model, climate scenarios were generated under Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for three emissions representative concentration pathways as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to the analysis using ACGY model, increasing yield was observed in grape up to year 2050 as compared to current yield.

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Published

01-12-2020

How to Cite

S.J. KADBHANE, & V.L.MANEKAR. (2020). Development of agro-climatic grape yield model for Nashik region, Maharashtra, India. Journal of Agrometeorology, 22(4), 494–500. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v22i4.474

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 4 (2020): December

Section

Research Paper

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