Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Rainfall Variability and Cereal Crop Yields in Northwestern Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v28i3.3364Keywords:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Rainfall variability, Cereal crop yield, Climate variability, Northwestern NigeriaAbstract
This study assessed the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall variability and cereal crop yields using monthly rainfall data (1983–2024) sourced from the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources; annual rice, millet and sorghum yield data (2000–2024) from the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS); and ENSO indices (1983–2024) obtained from NOAA. Rainfall anomalies were computed to characterise interannual variability, while linear regression and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with eta-squared (η²) effect size were used to evaluate crop yield trends and ENSO effects. Annual rainfall averaged 862.26 mm (CV = 37.14%) and varied significantly among ENSO phases (F = 5.32, p = 0.0052), with pronounced wetter conditions during some La Niña years (2021 and 2022). Rice (p = 0.013) and millet (p < 0.001) yields exhibited significant increasing trends, whereas sorghum (p = 0.002) showed a slight significant decline. However, ENSO had no significant influence on all the yields. These findings indicate that ENSO is a significant driver of rainfall variability but a weak predictor of annual cereal yields, highlighting the need to integrate ENSO-based seasonal climate forecasts with climate-smart agricultural practices to strengthen agrometeorological advisory services.
References
Abdullahi, M., Idi, A. S., & Hassan, A. H. (2023). Impact of USAID Markets Programme on sorghum farmers' livelihood in Northwest, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Environment and Social Science, 9(1), 263–276. https://doi.org/10.56160/jaeess2023/vol9iss1/018
Amare, M., & Balana, B. (2023). Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria. Ecological Economics, 211, Article 107892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107892
Ati, O. F., Iguisi, E. O., & Mohammed, S. O. (2010). Effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in Katsina, Nigeria. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 5(23), 3273–3278.
Bello, A. A., & Mamman, M. B. (2018). Monthly rainfall prediction using artificial neural network: A case study of Kano, Nigeria. Environmental and Earth Sciences Research Journal, 5(2), 37–41. https://doi.org/10.18280/eesrj.050201
Cao, J., Zhang, Z., Xie, J., Luo, Y., Han, J., Mitchell, P. J., & Tao, F. (2024). Tailoring wheat agronomic management to ENSO phases to manage climate variability in Australia at 5-minute resolution. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 356, Article 110168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110168
Dagona, A. M., Dala, A., & Hassan, A. (2024). Effects of climate change among smallholder farmers in Bade Local Government Area of Yobe State, Nigeria. Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, 10(1B). https://doi.org/10.4314/dujopas.v10i1b.6
Dia-Diop, A., Zebaze, S., Wade, M., Djiondo, R. N., Diop, B., Efon, E., & Lenouo, A. (2020). Interannual variability of rainfall over the West Africa Sahel. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 8, 85–101. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2020.83007
Dogondaji, M. B., & Magawata, D. (2024). Rainfall variability and its implications on crop production in Sokoto State. International Journal of Innovative Environmental Studies Research, 12(3), 89–103.
Egbuawa, O. I., Anyanwu, J. C., Amaku, G. E., & Onuoha, I. C. (2017). Assessment of the teleconnection between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and West African rainfall. African Research Review, 11(4), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v11i4.3
Federal Republic of Nigeria. (2024). Federal Republic of Nigeria data collection survey on agriculture sector in Nigeria (QCBS).
Gbode, I. E., Adeyeri, O. E., Menang, K. P., Intsiful, J. D. K., Ajayi, V. O., Omotosho, J. A., & Akinsanola, A. A. (2019). Observed changes in climate extremes in Nigeria. Meteorological Applications, 26(4), 642–654. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1791
Hashidu, U. S., & Badaru, S. I. (2021). Relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation and rainfall in Sudano-Sahelian Region of Northern Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Environment and Social Science, 7(2), 211–216.
Lawrence, U. E., & Elisha, I. (2022). Relationship between rainfall variability and sorghum yield in Potiskum Local Government Area of Yobe State, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 15(1), 10–17.
Ngoune-Tandzi, L., & Mutengwa, C. S. (2020). Factors affecting yield of crops. In A. Amanullah (Ed.), Agronomy—Climate change and food security (Chap. 2). IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90672
Nicholson, S. E. (2013). The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, Article 453521. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521
Okon, E. M., Falana, B. M., Solaja, S. O., Yakubu, S. O., Alabi, O. O., Okikiola, B. T., Awe, T. E., Adesina, B. T., Tokula, B. E., Kipchumba, A. K., & Edeme, A. B. (2021). Systematic review of climate change impact research in Nigeria: Implication for sustainable development. Heliyon, 7(9), Article e07941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07941
Okumura, Y. M. (2019). ENSO diversity from an atmospheric perspective. Current Climate Change Reports, 5, 245–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00138-7
Olalere, G. E., Bulama, L., & Umar, A. A. (2021). Rainfall anomalies pattern in Northwestern Nigeria (NWN). Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 25(4), 43–52. https://doi.org/10.9734/jgeesi/2021/v25i430282
Pienaah, C. K., Batung, E., Saaka, S. A., Mohammed, K., & Luginaah, I. (2023). Early warnings and perceived climate change preparedness among smallholder farmers in the Upper West Region of Ghana. Land, 12(10), Article 1944. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12101944
Rilwanu, T. Y., & Adamu, G. K. (2022). Water management strategy for climate-smart agriculture in semi-arid Northern Nigeria. In Y. Y. Obadaki, J. O. Folorunsho, M. A. Gada, R. D. Abu, & T. Y. Rilwanu (Eds.), Integrated environmental management issues: A festschrift in honour of Professor Edwin Osawe Iguisi, Professor of Geomorphology & Hydrology (pp. 66–83). Ahmadu Bello University Press.
Salau, O. R., Fasuba, A., Aduloju, K. A., Adesakin, G. E., & Fatigun, A. T. (2016). Effects of changes in ENSO on seasonal mean temperature and rainfall in Nigeria. Climate, 4(1), Article 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4010005
Shehu, A. U., Yelwa, S. A., Sawa, B. A., & Adegbehin, A. B. (2016). The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on rainfall variation in Kaduna Metropolis, Nigeria. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 8(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.9734/JGEESI/2016/27287
Singh, S., Abebe, A., Srivastava, P., & Chaubey, I. (2021). Effect of ENSO modulation by decadal and multi-decadal climatic oscillations on contiguous United States streamflows. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 36, Article 100876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100876
Ta, S., Kouadio, K. Y., Ali, K. E., Toualy, E., Aman, A., & Yoroba, F. (2016). West Africa extreme rainfall events and large-scale ocean surface and atmospheric conditions in the Tropical Atlantic. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, Article 1940456. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1940456
Tanko, I. A., Yahaya, T. I., Abdulkadir, A., Ezenwora, J. A., Ibrahim, I., & Kura, A. T. (2026). Predicting rainfall variability and cereal crop yields using climatic oscillation indices and machine learning in Northwestern Nigeria. Kaduna Journal of Geography, 8(1), 309–320.
Umar, A. T., & Kehinde, M. O. (2020). Relationship of El Niño Southern Oscillation to rainfall patterns in Nigeria. Open Journal of Environmental Research, 1(1), 1–20.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2026 ISAH ABDULLAHI TANKO, TAYO IYANDA YAHAYA, AISHETU ABDULKADIR, JOEL AGHAEGBUNAM EZENWORA, ISHIAKU IBRAHIM, ABDULRAZAK TIJJANI KURA
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This is a human-readable summary of (and not a substitute for) the license. Disclaimer.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
