Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Nineveh, Iraq using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v28i1.3113Keywords:
Drought, Spatiotemporal analysis, SPEI, Climate Change, Gridded dataAbstract
Combining station observations with bias-corrected gridded climate data is crucial for reliable drought assessment in data-sparse regions. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Nineveh, Iraq, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at three- and six-month timescales (SPEI03 and SPEI06). Monthly station observations (1992-2013) were used to bias-correct TerraClimate data (2001-2023), which were then utilized to extend the record and compute SPEIs based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity were quantified, and trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results show notable interannual variability and a clear shift toward more frequent, severe, and persistent droughts in recent decades. The northern and northeastern areas emerged as drought hotspots, with Tel-Afar station experiencing the longest and most severe events. Comparisons between 2001–2011 and 2012–2023 reveal a marked intensification and expansion of severe and extreme drought zones. Trend analysis confirms widespread declines in moisture availability, especially for SPEI06, indicating increased exposure to prolonged water deficits. These findings highlight substantial spatial heterogeneity and emphasize the need for localized drought adaptation, improved water resource management, and early-warning systems to mitigate escalating risks to agriculture and livelihoods under a changing climate.
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