Assessment of wheat yields under climate change based on RCA4 model simulations in Tiaret region, Algeria

Authors

  • SABRINA TAIBI Protection and preservation of water resources laboratory (PPRE), Blida 1 university, Blida, Algeria.
  • ZEKARI MOHAMMEDI Agricultural water management laboratory (LMEA), National Higher School of Agronomy (ENSA), ES16.03, Dept. of Agricultural Engineering, Algiers, Algeria.
  • MOHAMED AMINE FEDDAL Agricultural water management laboratory (LMEA), National Higher School of Agronomy (ENSA), ES16.03, Dept. of Agricultural Engineering, El Harrach, Algeria.
  • RIMA LABAD

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i2.2900

Keywords:

Climate change, Regional climate model, Wheat yield, Multiple regression model, Algeria

Abstract

This study focuses on analyzing the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on wheat production in the Tiaret region of Algeria and evaluating the future climate change and its impact on winter wheat yields. We analyzed the temporal variability of rainfall, temperatures and wheat yield using long term data. The future climate change projection data for two projected periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were obtained from the Africa-Cordex regional climate model. The Pettitt test highlighted a decrease of 30% in annual rainfall during 1950-2020 and an increase of 1.3°C in maximum temperature from 1980 to 2020. The Pearson coefficient correlation showed a significant positive correlation between yields and mean rainfall and a negative significant correlation with maximum temperature. Future average yields estimated by linear regression with rainfall and temperature showed that the yields will drop by 20% if no adaptation measures are undertaken.

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Published

01-06-2025

How to Cite

TAIBI, S., MOHAMMEDI, Z., FEDDAL, M. A., & LABAD, R. (2025). Assessment of wheat yields under climate change based on RCA4 model simulations in Tiaret region, Algeria. Journal of Agrometeorology, 27(2), 139–143. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i2.2900

Issue

Vol. 27 No. 2 (2025): June

Section

Research Paper

Categories

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Copyright (c) 2025 SABRINA TAIBI, ZEKARI MOHAMMEDI, MOHAMED AMINE FEDDAL, RIMA LABAD

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