Developing fire danger models using logistic regression analysis for mid-hills of Himachal Pradesh

Authors

  • Divya Mehta Department of Environmental Science, College of Forestry, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry Nauni – Solan (H. P.) 173230 India
  • P.K. Baweja Department of Environmental Science, College of Forestry, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry Nauni – Solan (H. P.) 173230 India
  • R.K. Aggarwal Department of Environmental Science, College of Forestry, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry Nauni – Solan (H. P.) 173230 India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v21i4.289

Keywords:

Fire danger model, fire occurrence, logistic regression model

Abstract

The present study intended to develop a climatic fire danger model for mid-hills zone of Himachal Pradesh using ten years weather data in relation with forest fire occurrence (2007-2016). Logistic regression technique was used to determine the relationship between fire occurrence and weather parameters viz., maximum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (ms-1). The model was validated by calculating area under curve (AUC), coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square Error (RMSE), with estimated values of 88.90%, 0.705 and 0.247, respectively. The fire danger model was verified with actual fire incidences in the study area during the year 2017. Wald's test was carried out to quantify impact climatic parameters on forest fire. Wald's test value was highest for maximum temperature (40.07) followed by relative humidity (1.15) and wind speed (0.75), respectively. In future such model can be utilized for prevention of forest fire hazards in the study area.

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Published

01-12-2019

How to Cite

Divya Mehta, P.K. Baweja, & R.K. Aggarwal. (2019). Developing fire danger models using logistic regression analysis for mid-hills of Himachal Pradesh. Journal of Agrometeorology, 21(4), 510–514. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v21i4.289

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 4 (2019): December

Section

Research Paper

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