Climate change and its effects on maize yield in Nepal: An empirical analysis using the ARDL model

Authors

  • AASHMA ARYAL Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • ANKIT YADAV Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • ABHA GOYAL Department of Agricultural Statistics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • BHARATH KUMAR MANNEPALLI Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • PRAKHAR DEEP Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • VIRENDRA KAMALVANSHI Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005
  • SAKET KUSHWAHA Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221005

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i3.2883

Keywords:

Climate Change, Maize yield, ARDL model, Cointegration approach, Unit root test, Nepal

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on maize yield in Nepal’s Gulmi (hilly) and Rupandehi (Terai) districts using climatic data from 1981 to 2023 on rainfall, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings obtained ARDL model shows that rainfall positively influences yield in both regions. Relative humidity has a positive long-term effect in Gulmi but a negative impact in Rupandehi. Maximum temperature increases yield in Gulmi but significantly reduces it in Rupandehi, indicating regional sensitivity. Minimum temperature negatively affects Gulmi yields but has a negligible positive effect in Rupandehi. The ARDL models demonstrate strong explanatory power, with adjusted R² values of 0.86 (Gulmi) and 0.80 (Rupandehi), confirming a significant long-term relationship between climate variables and yield. Error correction terms suggest that 28% (Gulmi) and 30% (Rupandehi) of short-term yield deviations adjust back to long-run equilibrium annually. These results highlight the importance of localized climate adaptation strategies in agriculture.

 

References

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Published

01-09-2025

How to Cite

ARYAL, A., YADAV, A., ABHA GOYAL, MANNEPALLI, B. K., DEEP, P., KAMALVANSHI, V., & KUSHWAHA, S. (2025). Climate change and its effects on maize yield in Nepal: An empirical analysis using the ARDL model. Journal of Agrometeorology, 27(3), 344–348. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i3.2883

Issue

Vol. 27 No. 3 (2025): September

Section

Research Paper

Categories

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Copyright (c) 2025 AASHMA ARYAL, ANKIT YADAV, ABHA GOYAL, BHARATH KUMAR MANNEPALLI, PRAKHAR DEEP, VIRENDRA KAMALVANSHI, SAKET KUSHWAHA

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