Bayesian discriminant function analysis based forecasting of crop yield in Kanpur district of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

Discriminant function analysis technique using Bayesian approach has been attempted for wheat forecasting in Kanpur district of Uttar Pradesh, India both qualitatively and quantitatively. Crop yield data and weekly weather data on temperature (maximum and minimum), relative humidity (maximum and minimum), rainfall for 16 weeks of the crop cultivation have been used in the study. These data have been utilized for model fitting and validation. Crop years were divided into two and three groups based on the de-trended yield. Crop yield forecast models have been developed using posterior probabilities calculated through Bayesian approach in stepwise discriminant function analysis along with year as regressors for different weeks. Suitable strategy has been used to solve the problem of number of variables more than number of data points. Performance of the models obtained at different weeks was compared using Adjusted R2, PRESS (Predicted error sum of square), number of misclassifications. Forecasts were evaluated using RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error) of forecast. The result shows that the model based on three groups case perform better. The performance of the proposed Bayesian discriminant function analysis technique approach was better as compared to existing discriminant function analysis score based approach both qualitatively and quantitatively.