Agroclimatic suitability analysis for oil palm under projected climate in North Aceh Regency, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i2.2662Keywords:
Climate change, Climate projection, Climate scenario, MIROC6 model, Suitability classificationAbstract
Climate change has led to changes in agroclimatic suitability classes for oil palm cultivation due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. North Aceh, one of the largest oil palm-producing regencies in Aceh Province, Indonesia is vulnerable to global climate change. The objective of this study is to identify suitable locations within North Aceh Regency for the cultivation of oil palm plants using average monthly rainfall and air temperature for the period 2014-2023 and also for future by employing projected climate data from the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the periods of 2026-2035 and 2036-2045. This study aims to identify changes in agroclimatic suitability classes for oil palm in North Aceh due to climate change. The research results show a significant shift from the highly suitable class (S1) to the moderately suitable class (S2) in the projection period of 2026-2045. These findings indicate a potential decrease in oil palm productivity, which could significantly impact farmers' incomes and the local economy. Therefore, adaptation policies that support the use of climate-tolerant varieties and the implementation of sustainable land management practices are needed to mitigate the impacts of these changes.
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