Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs performance and future projection for the Boro and Kharif seasons over the new alluvial zones of West Bengal

Authors

  • PURBA GOSWAMI Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal
  • SARATHI SAHA Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal
  • LALU DAS Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal
  • SAON BANERJEE Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v26i2.2485

Keywords:

Climate model, CMIP6-GCMs, Boro rice, Future projection, Model evaluation, Model rankings

Abstract

Present study examined the overall performance of 12 CMIP6 GCMs for rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures for rice crop-growing seasons i.e., Boro (January to May) and Kharif (June to October) over the new alluvial zone of West Bengal. A wide range of indices i.e., index of agreement, error indices and bias estimators were utilized to put more confidence on the results. Results indicated that CMIP6 models were able to reproduce observed mean climatology and inter-annual variability of maximum and minimum temperature adequately for both seasons while a smaller number of models (3-4 models) out of a total of 12 GCM-CMIP6 models showed satisfactory performance for rainfall. The ranks assigned to the models revealed that CNRM–ESM2–1 was the best-performing model for Kharif and MRI-ESM2-0 showed the highest skill for Boro. ACCESS-CM2 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR performed worst for Kharif and Boro seasons respectively. Further, CNRM–ESM2–1 and MRI-ESM2-0 were used to project the future climate for Kharif and Boro seasons respectively under both moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme scenarios (SSP5-8.5). Higher warming was projected during Boro season than Kharif. Projections revealed increasing rainfall during Kharif season but decreasing rainfall in Boro season in both the moderate and extreme future scenarios.

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Published

01-06-2024

How to Cite

GOSWAMI, P., SAHA, S., LALU DAS, & SAON BANERJEE. (2024). Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs performance and future projection for the Boro and Kharif seasons over the new alluvial zones of West Bengal. Journal of Agrometeorology, 26(2), 168–173. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v26i2.2485

Issue

Vol. 26 No. 2 (2024): June

Section

Research Paper

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Copyright (c) 2024 PURBA GOSWAMI, SARATHI SAHA, LALU DAS, SAON BANERJEE

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