Flash drought in Odisha- prediction, impact assessment, coping strategies: Current status and future strategies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v25i4.2450Keywords:
Agriculture, climate change, coping strategies, flash drought , impact assessmentAbstract
A detailed review was done on the past studies conducted by the researchers on climate change and variability, particularly for the Indian conditions having a typical monsoon climate. The short-term droughts (flash droughts) occurring due to the prolonged dry spells, heat waves, soil moisture deficits, which are caused due to the climate variability were also investigated. Accurate prediction techniques used for flash drought (FD), assessment of its impact on agriculture and farmers’ income as well as appropriate coping strategies recommended by different researchers to minimize the losses in crop yield and farmers’ income were analyzed. The total loss in crop yield was found to increase with increase in land size; however, per acre loss was higher for smaller holdings. It was observed that the resource crunch small and marginal farmers particularly belonging to SC/ST were worst sufferers due to their inability to adopt appropriate coping strategies such as: crop insurance, short duration climate resilient cultivars, low-interest loans from financial institutions etc. It was inferred that the FD needs special attention particularly for the state of Odisha, where a majority of the population are engaged in agriculture and its allied activities. Agriculture accounts for around 30 per cent of the net state domestic product (NSDP). Investigations of the past studies revealed that the western Odisha regions are most vulnerable to climate change and variability and to the FD caused by the climate variability. The small and marginal tribal farmers of western Odisha whose sole source of income is from agriculture, with low affordability, are worst affected. To cope with these natural calamities, they need to adopt coping strategies namely, going for a variety of sources of income, cultivation of short-duration climate resilient varieties, in-situ rainwater conservation and use for life-saving irrigation, crop insurance, and low interest loans as well as low-cost post-harvest techniques for the perishable crop produce etc.
References
Arora, A., and Birwal, D. (2017). Natural Calamities, Crop Losses and Coping Strategies: An Economic Analysis from Odisha. Ind. J. Agri. Econ., 72 (3): 385-395.
Ault, T. R. (2020). On the essentials of drought in a changing climate. Sci., 368: 256–260.
Belayneh, A., Adamowski, J., Khalil, B. and Ozga-Zielinski, B. (2014). Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models. J. Hydrol., 508: 418–429.
Brodribb, T. J., Powers, J., Cochard, H. and Choat, B. (2020). Hanging by a thread? Forests and drought. Sci., 368: 261–266.
Chung, C.E. and Ramanathan, V. (2006). Weakening of North Indian SST Gradients and the Monsoon Rainfall in India and the Sahel. J. Climate, 19: 2036–2045. http: //dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3820.1.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granie, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V. and Valentini, R. (2005). Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003: Nature, 437 (7058): 529–533.
Dash, S. K. and Hunt, J.C. (2007). Variability of climate change in India. Curr. Sci., 93(6): 782-788.
Davis, K. F., Chiarelli, D. D., Rulli, M. C., Chhatre, A., Richter, B., Singh, D. and Defries, R. (2018). Alternative cereals can improve water use and nutrient supply in India Sci. Adv. 4 eaao1108.
Dharbale, B. B., Kardile, P. B., Ugale, M. V. and Nigade, D. (2019). Climate Change & Drought: A review, Impact of Climate Change & Drought on Pulses Crops in India. Indian J. Agric. Allied Sci., 5(2): 24-28.
Gautam, R. C. and Bana, R. S. (2014). Drought in India: Its impact and mitigation strategies – a review. Indian J. Agron., 59(2): 179-190.
Goswami, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M.S. and Xavier, P.K. (2006). Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314: 1442–1445. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027.
Guhathakurta, P. and Rajeevan, M. (2008). Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int. J. Climatol., 28: 1453–1469. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1640.
Gupta, A. and Pathak, H. (2016). Climate Change and Agriculture in India. Climate Change Programme, Strategic Programmes, Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE) Division, Department of Science & Technology, Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India, New Delhi.
Hunt, E. D., Hubbard, K. G., Wilhite, D. A., Arkebauer, T. J. and Dutcher, A. L. (2009). The development and evaluation of a soil moisture index, Int. J. Climatol., 29(5): 747–759, doi:10.1002/joc.1749.
Hussain, A., Memon, J. A., and Hanif, S. (2020). Weather shocks, coping strategies and farmers’ income: A case of rural areas of district Multan, Punjab. Weather and Climate Extremes, 30: 100288.
Kayatz, B., Harris, F., Hillier, J., Adhya, T., Dalin, C., Nayak, D., Green, R. F., Smith, P. and Dangour, A .D. (2019). ‘More crop per drop’: exploring India’s cereal water use since 2005 Sci. Total Environ. 673 207–17.
Kishtawal, C.M., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., Pielke Sr, R.A. and Shepherd, J.M. (2010). Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India. Int. J. Climatol. 30: 1908–1916. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2044.
Kripalani, R.H., Kulkarni, A., Sabade, S.S. and Khandekar, M.L. (2003). Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Nat. Hazard. 29: 189–206.
Kumar, K.K., Kamala, K., Rajagopalan, B., Hoerling, M. P., Eischeid, J.K., Patawardhan, S., Srinivasan, G., Goswami, B. N., Nemani, R. (2010). The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate. Clim Dyn., 36:2159–2170.
Lotfirad, M., Adib, A., Salehpoor, J., Ashrafzadeh, A. and Kisi, O. (2021). Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran). Applied Water Sci., 11 (10): 1–24.
Lunagaria, M M, H P Dabhi and Vyas Pandey (2015). Trends in the temperature and rainfall extremes during climatic past of Gujarat. J. Agrometeorol., 17(1): 118-123. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v17i1.986
Mahto, S.S. and Mishra V. (2020). Dominance of summer monsoon flash droughts in India. Environ. Res. Letters. 15 (2020): 104061.
Malhi, G.S., Kaur, M., Kaushik, P. (2021). Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review. Sustainability, 13: 1318. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/su13031318.
Mallya, G., Mishra V, Niyogi, D., Tripathi, S., Rao, S. and Govindaraju. (2016). Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region. Weather Climate Extremes, 12: 43-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002i.
Mardy, T., Uddin, M.N., Sarkar, M.A., Roy D. and Dunn E.S. (2018). Assessing Coping Strategies in Response to Drought: A Micro Level Study in the North-West Region of Bangladesh. Climate, 6(2): 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020023.
Mishra, V., Smoliak, B.V., Lettenmaier, D.P. and Wallace, J.M., (2012). A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1119150109.
Mo, K. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2015). Heat wave flash droughts in decline. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42: 2823–9.
Mo, K. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2016). Precipitation deficit flash droughts over the United States J. Hydrometeorol., 21: 1793–810.
Mukherjee, S., and Mishra, A. K. (2022). Global flash drought analysis: Uncertainties from indicators and datasets. Earth's Future, 10: e2022EF002660. https://doi. org/10.1029/2022EF002660.
Natarajan, N., M. Vasudevanb, S. Ahash Rajaa, K. Mohanpradaapa, G. Snehaa and S. Joshna Shanua (2023). An assessment methodology for drought severity and vulnerability using precipitationbased indices for the arid, semi-arid and humid districts of Tamil Nadu, India. Water Supply. 23(1): 54. doi: 10.2166/ws.2022.415.
Naumann, G., Cammalleri, C., Mentaschi, L. and Feyen, L. (2021). Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming. Nat. Clim. Change, 11: 485–491.
Niranjan Kumar, K., Rajeevan, M., Pai, D.S., Srivastava, A.K. and Preethi, B. (2013). On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India. Weather Clim. Extrem. 1: 42–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006.
Niyogi, D., Kishtawal, C., Tripathi, S. and Govindaraju, R.S. (2010). Observational evidence that agricultural intensification and land use change may be reducing the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Water Resour. Res. 46: 17, doi: 201010.1029/2008WR007082.
Otkin Jason A., Mark Svoboda, Eric D. Hunt, Trent W. Ford, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, and Jeffrey B. Basara (2018). Flash Droughts: A Review and Assessment of the Challenges Imposed by Rapid-Onset Droughts in the United States.
Overpeck, J. T. (2013). The challenge of hot drought. Nature, 503: 350–351.
Pandey, Vyas. (2023). Climate variability, trends, projections and their impact on different crops: A case study of Gujarat, India. J. Agrometeorol., 25(2): 224–238. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v25i2.2151
Patel, S. K. (2018). Community level assessment of droughts in Odisha: impact, resilience and implications, Population Council, Policy Brief, New Delhi.
Patel, S. K., Mathew, B., Nanda, A., Pati, S. and Nayak, H. (2019). A review on extreme weather events and livelihood in Odisha, India. Mausam, 70(3): 551-600.
Pendergrass, A. G., Meehl, Gerald A. Pulwarty, Roger. (2020). Flash droughts present a new challenge for sub seasonal-to-seasonal prediction Nat. Clim. Change, 10: 191–199.
Radmanesh, F., Esmaeili-Gisavandani, H. and Lotfirad, M. (2022). Climate change impacts on the shrinkage of Lake Urmia. J. Water Climate Change, 13(6): 2255–2277.
Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. and Jaswal, A.K. (2008). Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, 6, doi: 200810.1029/2008GL035143.
Rakkasagi, S., Poonia, V. and Goyal, M. K. (2023). Flash drought as a new climate threat: drought indices, insights from a study in India and implications for future research. J. Water Climate Change. 14(9): 3368-33.
Ray, S. (2014). Report on Drought and Flood Impact Assessment on Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.
Roxy, M.K., Ritika, K., Terray, P., Murtugudde, R., Ashok, K. and Goswami, B. (2015). Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat. Commun., 6:7423
Rupa Kumar, K., Sahai, A.K., Krishna Kumar, K., Patwardhan, S.K., Mishra, P.K., Revadekar, J.V., Kamala, K. and Pant, G.B. (2006). High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century. Curr. Sci. 90: 334–345.
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F. and Roderick, M. L. (2012). Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491, 435–438.
Sivakkumar, S. N., Mangottiri, V., Narayanan, N. and Saragur, S. K. (2020). Evolution of strategic planning for water sustainability in coastal cities of India–contemporary issues and way forward. IOP Conference Series. Mat. Sci. Engg., 955 (1): 012103.
Sridhara, S., G.M. Chaithra, and Pradeep Gopakkali. (2021). Assessment and monitoring of drought in Chitradurga district of Karnataka using different drought indices. J. Agrometeorol., 23(2): 221–227. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v23i2.72
Stephenson, D. (2001). Searching for a fingerprint of Global Warming in the Asian summer monsoon. Mausam, 52: 213–213–220.
Trenberth, Kevin E. , Aiguo Dai, Gerard van der Schrier, Philip D. Jones, Jonathan Barichivich, Keith R. Briffa and Justin Sheffield (2014). Global warming and changes in drought. Nat. Clim. Change, 4: 17–22.
Tyagi, S., Zhang, X., Saraswat, D., Sahany, S., Mishra, S. K. and Niyogi, D. (2022). Flash drought: Review of concept, prediction and the potential for machine learning, deep learning methods. Earth's Future, 10: e2022EF002723. https://doi. org/10.1029/2022EF002723.
Van Vliet, M. T. H., Sheffield, J., Wiberg, D. and Wood, E. F. (2016). Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide. Environ. Res. Lett. 11(12):124021.
Wahl ER. and Morrill C. (2010). Toward understanding and predicting monsoon patterns. Sci., 328:437–438.
Yuan, X., Wang, L. and Wood, E. F. (2018). Anthropogenic intensification of southern African flash droughts as exemplified by the 2015/16 season. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 99: S86–90 17
Yuan, X., Wang, L., Wu, P., Ji, P., Sheffield, J. and Zhang, M. (2019). Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China Nat. Commun., 10: 1–8.
Zhang, M., Chen, S., Jiang, H., Lin, Y., Zhang, J., Song, X. and Zhou, G. (2019). Water-use characteristics and physiological response of moso bamboo to flash droughts Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 16: 2174.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2023 R. K. PANDA, U. C. MOHANTY, SUBHAPRADA DASH, CURIE PARHI
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This is a human-readable summary of (and not a substitute for) the license. Disclaimer.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.