Advances in application of sub-seasonal weather forecast in Indian agriculture

Abstract

Under the climatic variability and climate change, skilful weather forecast in different spatial and temporal scale encourages the farmers to organize and activate their own resources in the best possible way to increase the crop production. Though medium range weather forecast is used extensively in operational agromet advisory services, sub-seasonal forecast provides additional decision-relevant information to support the timing of crop planting, irrigation scheduling, and harvesting, particularly in water-stressed regions. In view of that, dynamical and statistical and sub-seasonal seasonal forecast is generated and delivered to the farmers as climate information services in number of countries in the world. Under the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) Project, Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in collaboration with Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM), CRIDA, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Hyderabad prepared Agromet Advisory fortnightly taking into consideration realized rainfall during previous fortnight and extended range rainfall forecast for next fortnight and crop information i.e., state and stage of the crops. In the present article agricultural applications of sub-seasonal forecasts on agricultural management in India has been explored. It has been showed how the extended range weather forecast i.e., sub-seasonal forecast has been developed and translated into agromet advisories for the farming communities to increase crop production in India and whether the present state of accuracy could be used for generating advisory under contingent crop planning conditions and other advisories by citing different case studies and ultimately helping the farming communities to improve their economic conditions. It has been demonstrated here that sub-seasonal forecasts are increasingly being used across agriculture in the country. The sub-seasonal forecasting time scale is therefore a new concept for many users. Because of the additional value of sub-seasonal forecasts for decision-making, it is increasingly gaining interest among users. Present case studies clearly suggest the forecast at sub-seasonal time scale is need of the hour.