Impact of projected climate change on wheat varieties in Uttarakhand, India

Abstract

Crop production is naturally sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature and CO2 are two important parameters related to climate change, which affect yield of crop. To test the hypothesis an attempt has been made to assess the impact of these two parameters on the growth, yield and physiology of wheat cultivars (HD2285, HUW 234, PBW 343, PBW 226, Raj 3765 and Raj 3077) grown in North – West plain of Uttarakhand. For this purpose CERES-Wheat model v.4.5 was used. Total five CO2 concentrations as projected by IPCC i.e. Ambient (380 ppm), +100, +200, +300, and +400 ppm have been used in the model. However, on the basis of study carried out in the region, the model was run and rerun for temperatures rise by 0.50C, 1.00C, 1.50C and 2.00C from current temperature levels. Percent deviation of phenology, leaf area index, yield, evapotranspiration and WUE from baseline was estimated and analyzed to assess the effect of elevated temperature and CO2.The model results showed that the yields and WUE of all the varieties increased significantly under elevated CO2 concentrations and decreased significantly with increasing temperatures. Among the cultivars PBW 343 performed well under various temperature as well as CO2 scenarios and found to be high yielding with an average grain yield potential of 5628 and 5669 kg ha-1. Variety HD 2285 was found to be more sensitive in response to varying level of CO2 with the average change of 40.6% from baseline. Varieties such as PBW 343, HUW 234 and Raj 3765 are best performer varieties in term of growth (LAI), yield (grain and biomass) physiology (total evapotranspiration and WUE) and have ability to sustain in changing climate. Thus these cultivars can be recommended for cultivation in SW plains of Uttarakhand state.