Farmer’s perception of climate change and adaptation strategies under temperate environmental conditions of Kashmir, India

Warming due to climate change is now a reality as evident from the significant increase in the CO2 concentration (412.55 ppm as of August 2020) which has caused most of the warming and has contributed the most to climate change (NOAA, 2020). India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901-2018 and is anticipated to rise by approximately 4.4°C by 2100 century (Krishnan et al., 2020). Rise in temperatures have also been perceived by the farmers of the country (Hussain et al., 2013), which is largely on account of GHG-induced warming, partially offset by forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols and changes in land use (Krishnan et al.,2020). Various studies suggest that most glaciers in the North Himalayan including Kashmir Himalayas (Kolahoi Peak: 5425 m; Harmukh Peak: 5143 m) and Amarnath Peak: 5186 m) has reduced in mass and volume due to climate change (Romshoo et al., 2015; Wester et al., 2019). Furthermore, proper quantification of clear knowledge of its causes in hilly terrains is subject to further studies.

hydropower capacity of the state (Sharma, 2015). All these factors supersede the interventions attempted by the policy forming institutions to address the adverse impact of climate change. Hence, it becomes imperative to make farmers aware of the problems of climate change and its impact that is creeping slowly but steadily. For this purpose, it is important to know the farmer's perception about changing climate and what adaption and mitigation measures have been taken by the farmers over time to counter its ill effects of climate change. Therefore, this study is aimed to seek the perception of farmers about climate change, to understanding observed trends and variability of local weather to determine the relationship between farmers perception and actual weather trends, which has an important bearing on determining the impact of climate change on state agricultureto suggest suitable management strategies for policymakers and the farming community at large.

MATERIAL AND METHODS
The study was carried out in nine different topographical locations (villages) falling in nine districts of Kashmir Valley (Fig. 1). The topographic and annual climatic features of these locations are given in Table 1. Since Kashmir Valley has rugged topography, and study locations have been purposely selected at three different altitudes of Kashmir Valley viz., 1. Low altitudes: <1650 m (Wadura, Batpora, and Khudwani) 2. Mid altitudes: 1650-1950 m (Pastuna, Sagam, Chandilura, Pombai, andKalaroosa) and 3. High altitudes >1950 m (Hamchipora). At all locations, rice is grown as the main crop during summer (Kharif) season followed by rapeseed-mustard/ oats during winter (Rabi) season. A total of 1140 farmers were randomly selected from all nine locations (Fig. 2) and the questionnaire was set-up and provided to the selected farmers to figure out how far weather parameters like rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature has changed over time (40 years). Besides, information was also sought about the mitigation/ adaptation strategies adopted by farmers overtime to counter the ill effects of climate change. Feedback received from the farmers was analysed and the strategies they have adopted against the climate change impacts. The extent of similarity of the farmer's perception of the observed meteorological data was also taken into consideration. For the determination of observed climate change trends, long-term meteorological data (1980-2019) on parameters viz., maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation from the Indian Meteorological Department, Rambagh, Srinagar was also collected and analysed.

Trends of temperature and precipitation
Maximum and minimum temperature: A significant increasing trend (p=0.06) at a rate of 0.02°C/year of mean maximum temperature in Kashmir valley over 40 years was explained by a non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical test (Fig. 3a). Data also specifies a substantial step jump in the year 1997 (p=0.01) which demonstrates that there was a significant distinction in maximum temperature with recent decades (1997-2019) having higher ranges of maximum temperature than initial years (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996) of the study period. Though there seem to be stages of increased and decreased annual temperatures, however this abrupt increase, particularly in mean maximum temperature is fascinating and needs further explanation. Conforming trends in annual mean minimum temperature expose an increasing rate of about 0.02°C/ year, with the Mann-Kendall test presenting a statistically increasing trend (p=0.001) (Fig. 3b), the year of change has been 1996, which is imitated by a significant abrupt increase. mm/year) followed by -0.30 > -0.28 > -0.06 mm/year for winter, autumn, summer season, respectively. A higher rate of decrease in precipitation was observed at the mountainous region, which was not conducive for delicate mountainous ecosystems especially for maintaining equilibrium in glaciers.

Farmer's perception
Critical weather parameter : The majority (50-70%) of the farmers across all the locations expressed that rainfall is the critical factor that governs crop productivity (Fig.   4a). About 30-50% of farmers opined that temperature   Farmers belonging to the area of Batpora (75%) and Khudwani (  Hamchipora (50%) expressed that July month was the warmest month in their area. However, majority of the farmers (60-75%) from all locations found January as coldest month of the year.

Precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) regimes :
Farmers across nine locations of the Kashmir Valley were of the same view regarding the wettest month of their region (Fig. 4c). January and February months were identified as the highest snowfall months in Kashmir. Whereas, farmers experience the highest amount of rainfall in the month of March and April. Not a single farmer was able to answer about the amount of average annual rainfall in their region. It indicates the urgency to educate farmers about the distribution of this important climatic variable in all study areas.

Knowledge of the instrumentation :
Majority of the farmers across nine locations stated that they have never visually experienced instruments that measure rainfall and temperature, except very small number of farmers from Khudwani (10%), Pombay (5%) and Wadura (5%) (Fig.  4d). This shows the importance of awareness programmes to educate farmers about meteorological instrumentation (raingauge and thermometer in particular) through various programmes.

Knowledge of climate/weather changes :
The answer of the farmers to a question on the variation in the precipitation and temperature was overwhelming. (Fig.  4e). Most of the farmers (45-60%) from all locations felt that the annual rainfall has been declining in their region over time. About 40-70% of farmers across all locations informed that the summer temperatures have been also increasing. A reflection on the rise in winter temperatures was expressed by 20-45% of the farmers with major percentage from Hamchipora (40%) and Chandilora (45%). About 10% of farmers living in mid to higher altitudes of Kalaroosa, Sagam, and Hamchipora perceived an increase in snowfall. Only 10% of the farmers of Pastunacould notice the occurrence of hailstorms, however, an average of 35-36% of the farmers from all locations could notice that there has been an increase in occurrence of drought and pest and diseases. None of the farmers across all the locations could recognize an increase or decrease in frost.
Change and shift of crops : It was noticed that farmers have been trying to adapt their cropping system according to the inconsistency in weather parameters and as per the market demand by altering their farming/cropping systems (Fig.4f). The major crop change was found to be from rice to horticulture sector particularly in south Kashmir areas viz. Pomaby (65%) and Sagam (45%) compared to other locations of the study. Owing to less irrigation requirement, the horticulture fruit (apple) also fetches premium price in the market compared to rice and other crops. Despite this, most of the farmers (68%) did not change their crops, but the farmers from all locations were unanimous in expressing the need to bring desirable changes for successful remunerative crop production for which reasons were attributed to non-profitability of existing crops (25%), less irrigation availability (8%) and crop damage due to extreme weather events (2%) (Fig.   4g).

Information source /advisory for farm decisions :
• A television program in the local language (Kashmiri) is the knowledge source for 10% of the farmers of Sagam, Kalaroosa, and Batpora.
• Radio continues to be one of the information sources for the farmers of Sagam (30%) and Khudwani (35%) • KVKs were the knowledge centers for the farmers of Sagam (30%) and Khudwani (40%). were found to follow agro-met advisories as provided by SAU (Fig. 4j). protect the environment (Fig. 4k).  • The minimum support price (MSP) to be maintained and be extended for all crops was also viewed as one of the effective safeguard measures by 85% farmers against climate change (Fig. 6d). Income in the form of MSPs for all crops provides them secured income and also increases the likelihood of a farmer to practice more adaptive strategies to climate change.

Consciousness about weather/crop insurance schemes
• At different locations of the study, more than 85% of farmers also viewed accurate early weather warnings system at block level and agro-met advisories services as one of the most viable strategies for preparedness against climate risks (Fig. 6  • In addition to above, providing financial support for soil nutrient enrichment was also viewed as most important assistance against climate change by the 90% of farmers across the different locations of study ( Fig. 6g). Whereas government compensations and subsidies to farmers in the event of their crop failure due to any calamity was also considered as strategic measure against climate risks (Fig 6f). is suggested that awareness programs should be organized regarding the causes, impacts, and mitigation of climate change. This paper also calls for the government to infuse funds and develop human resources that will provide expertise measures to build up resilient agriculture in the picture of inevitable climate change.